Falling Pupil Numbers: The Planning Challenge Facing Schools and MATs

Across England, schools and multi-academy trusts are facing a planning challenge that is easy to underestimate: falling pupil numbers.

According to the National Audit Office, demand for primary school places fell by 3% between 2018/19 and 2024/25, with a further 7% fall projected from 2025 to 2030. The proportion of unfilled primary school places also increased from 10% to 14% over the same period.

Source: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/responding-to-changing-demand-for-school-places/ 

For school leaders, this is not simply a numbers issue. Because funding follows pupils, falling rolls can quickly become a financial pressure. A school with fewer pupils may still have the same building to maintain, the same compliance responsibilities, the same core staffing requirements, and the same need to provide a broad and balanced curriculum.

For MATs, the challenge becomes even more complex. One school in a trust may be oversubscribed, while another may be experiencing a steady decline in applications. One area may be seeing housing growth, while another may be affected by lower birth rates or demographic change. This means trust leaders need to understand the picture across every school, not just at individual site level.

The key question is no longer simply:

How many pupils do we have?

It is now:

How do pupil numbers affect staffing, budgets, estates, contracts, maintenance, and long-term planning?

This is where strong operational visibility becomes essential.

If a school is operating with surplus space, leaders need to understand the cost of maintaining that space. If income is reducing, leaders need to know which contracts are due for renewal, where savings could be made, and what commitments are already in place. If a site is likely to grow again in the future, decisions around buildings and staffing need to be made carefully rather than reactively.

There is also a wider estates question. Empty classrooms may create opportunities for alternative use, SEND provision, early years provision, community services, or trust-wide projects. But those opportunities are difficult to assess without clear data on buildings, budgets, capacity, and need. 

For many schools, the issue is not a lack of effort. It is that the information needed to make joined-up decisions often sits in too many different places. Contracts may be in spreadsheets. Maintenance records may be in emails. Asset information may be held locally. Budget data may be reviewed separately from estates planning.

That makes strategic decision-making harder than it needs to be.

A more centralised approach gives MAT leaders a clearer view of what is happening across the trust. It allows them to spot risks earlier, identify pressure points, compare schools more consistently, and make better-informed decisions before issues become urgent.

Falling pupil numbers will not affect every school in the same way. Some schools will remain full. Others may see significant pressure. But across the sector, the need for better planning is clear.

The trusts that respond best will be those that can connect the dots between pupil numbers, income, estates, suppliers, contracts, and long-term sustainability.